双语•智库 | 现实残酷！中国“芯”痛背景下的全球半导体产业格局

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据媒体报道，美国商务部已禁止美国企业向中兴出售零部件，这一禁令立即生效，持续七年。

分析称，由于中兴的基带芯片、射频芯片、存储、大部分光器件均来自美国，该禁令将在短期内产生重大影响，给中兴带来极大冲击。更重要的是，该禁令敲响了中国半导体产业的警钟，自主可控不仅仅是口号，而是涉及到国家安全、国计民生的要务。

“双语·智库”第二十三期，将从中兴被禁事件入手，带您了解全球半导体产业格局以及中国的应对之道。

In a fresh crackdown on China amid growing trade tensions, the US on Monday announced a ban on the sale of components to Chinese telecom equipment maker ZTE Corp. This is more than a provocative reminder of the Trump trade bluff that serves neither side's interests; it's likely to prompt even greater indigenous efforts to develop China's semiconductor design and fabrication capacity.

在中美日益紧张的贸易局势中，美国对中国实施了新一轮制裁。美国4月16日宣布，将禁止美国企业向中国电信设备制造商中兴通讯销售元器件。这不仅仅是特朗普虚张声势、两败俱伤的贸易主张的挑衅之作，而且更有可能会促使中国加速发展本国的半导体设计和制造能力。

The US Commerce Department imposed a seven-year "denial of export privileges" against ZTE, which means US technology companies will be blocked from selling components to ZTE in the years to come.

美国商务部对中兴通讯实施7年的“出口权拒绝令”，这意味着未来几年，美国技术公司将禁止向中兴通讯销售元器件。

The export ban claims that ZTE violated a previous settlement of charges over its illegal shipments of telecommunications equipment to Iran and North Korea. It seems more likely that the ban, coming as trade tariff fears are being lobbed between the world's two largest economies, was prompted by dubious motives.

出口禁令称，中兴通讯违反了此前因被指“非法”向伊朗和朝鲜运送电信设备而作出的处置。这一禁令似乎是出于很可疑的动机，因为这两大经济体之间对贸易关税的担忧正在加剧。

The crackdown on ZTE, whose operations in the US have previously been considered a rare case of a strong market presence for a China-based technology company, will inevitably deal a blow to the Chinese telecom major. Reuters reported on Monday that ZTE relies on US companies for about 25 percent to 30 percent of the components used in its equipment from smartphones to gear to build telecommunications networks.

此前，中兴通讯在美国的业务被认为是一家中国科技公司在美拥有强大市场表现力的罕见案例。对中兴通讯的制裁将无疑会对这家中国电信巨头造成打击。据路透社4月16日报道，中兴通讯的智能手机设备所使用的部件中，约有25%至30%依赖美国公司来构建电信网络。

Among the US suppliers to ZTE are chipmakers Qualcomm Inc and Intel Corp and optical component makers Acacia Communications Inc and Lumentum Holdings Inc, according to Bloomberg.

据彭博社报道，中兴通讯的美国供应商包括芯片制造商高通、英特尔、光学组件制造商刺槐通信公司和鲁门特姆控股公司。

Compounding the situation, UK telecommunications companies have been warned by the UK's cybersecurity regulator not to use network equipment or services from ZTE, citing national security risks, the Financial Times (FT) reported.

英国《金融时报》报道，由于涉及国家安全风险，英国的网络安全监管机构警告英国电信公司不要使用中兴提供的网络设备或服务。这一做法使形势变得更糟。

In yet another spiteful step, the US Federal Communications Commission on Tuesday voted unanimously to push ahead with a plan aimed at blocking federally subsidized telecommunications carriers from buying Chinese telecom gear.

在另一个恶意行动中，美国联邦通信委员会4月17日一致投票通过推进一项计划，旨在阻止移动运营商使用联邦补贴购买中国企业生产的任何电信设备。

The US and the UK seem to be working in unison to obstruct China's 5G development roadmap that aims for global dominance in the 5G era.

美国和英国似乎正在共同努力，阻挠中国以5G时代实现全球主导地位为目标的5G发展路线图。

全球半导体产业格局

中国企业在美国的禁令下为何如此被动？关键就在于，在全球半导体产业中，中国目前并没有技术优势，而是对国际芯片制造商过度依赖。

先来看看2015年的数据↓

In 2015, 10 of the top 20 semiconductor companies were U.S. firms, and U.S. semiconductor companies generated over $165.9 billion in sales and had 50 percent of the $335.2 billion global market. The United States is the birthplace of the semiconductor industry, has always been in the forefront of the industry and has been a global market share leader, only losing the position for a short time to Japan in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

2015年，排名全球前20的半导体公司中，有10家是美国公司，美国半导体公司的销售额超过1659亿美元（约合人民币10398亿元），占全球市场3352亿美元（约合人民币21009亿元）的50%。美国是半导体产业的发祥地，一直处于行业前沿，并且是全球市场份额的领跑者，仅在上世纪80年代末和90年代初短期输于日本。

Besides, South Korea is the second ranked semiconductor manufacturing economy in the world (after the U.S.) and the leader in the memory market. Samsung and Hynix, together, hold 70 percent share in the global DRAM market and 50 percent of the global NAND flash market.

另外，韩国是世界第二大半导体制造业经济体（仅次于美国），也是内存市场的领导者。三星和海力士共同持有全球动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）市场70%的份额和全球NAND闪存市场50%的份额。

再来看看最新的数据：2017年，全球半导体制造商营收规模排名TOP10↓

▲数据来源：Gartner

显然，在全球半导体产业中，美韩两国仍占主导地位。美国的禁令正是戳中了中国的“无芯”之痛。

中兴被禁或催化国产半导体加速发展

Within a few years, China will consume more than half of the world’s semiconductors. Yet the country produces only about 15% of the semiconductors it consumes—up from 10% a few years ago, but still a long way from closing the gap between supply and demand.

未来几年内，中国将消耗世界一半以上的半导体。然而，中国仅能生产消耗量的15%——比几年前的10%有所增长，但距离缩小供需缺口还有很长的路要走。

Not surprisingly, China would like to play a larger role in the global semiconductor industry, producing more of the chips that go into smartphones, tablets, sensors and other consumer and industrial devices, whether for domestic demand or eventual export.

毫无疑问，中国希望在全球半导体行业发挥更大作用，生产更多用于智能手机、平板电脑、传感器及其它消费设备和工业设备的芯片，无论是应对国内需求还是最终出口。

Toward that goal, China has built up several semiconductor clusters across the country. Over the next 10 years, its national and provincial governments plan to invest as much as an additional 720 billion renminbi ($104 billion) in its domestic semiconductor industry. This investment will help meet demand while supporting China’s strategic interests in developing semiconductors for sensitive industries such as defense or telecommunications, reducing its dependence on international chipmakers.

为了实现这一目标，中国在全国范围内建立了若干半导体集群。未来10年，中国国家和省级政府计划在国内半导体行业再投资7200亿元人民币（合1040亿美元）。这一投资将有助于满足需求，同时支持中国为国防、电信等敏感行业开发半导体的战略利益，减少对国际芯片制造商的依赖。

The Ministry of Finance announced at the end of March that it had introduced tax incentives for domestic chipmakers. Qualified companies will be exempt from corporate income taxes for up to five years and then pay only half of the current 25 percent rate through years six to 10. That kind of tax break will undoubtedly be a catalyst for developing domestic chip capabilities.

3月底财政部宣布为国内芯片制造商提供税收优惠措施，符合条件的企业将免征5年所得税，第六年至第十年按照25%的法定税率减半征收企业所得税。此类税负减免无疑将促进国内芯片产能的发展。

Nevertheless, the fact that the products of China's chipmakers account for a small portion of chipsets used in devices and network solutions means that their achievements to date are still far from enough. And while it's relatively easy to push for greater usage of domestic chips in handsets and optical telecommunications systems, it's harder or even impossible for domestic chipmakers to break into the field of chips meant for 5G base stations, which represents a higher barrier to entry.

虽然如此，在设备与网络解决方案所使用的芯片组中，国内芯片制造商的产品依然只占一小部分，意味着他们目前的成就还远远不够。推进手机和光纤通信系统更多使用国产芯片并不困难，但对国内芯片制造商来说，进军5G基站芯片领域难度有所加大，甚至希望渺茫，因为市场准入门槛更高。

Beyond the current policy packages, China should consider investing a lot more in developing its own chip strength. This would mean not just funds for businesses with an expertise in this area, but great incentives for truly innovative chipmakers. If China can employ all available means to catapult domestic chipmakers into genuine global majors, the US will only end up hurting itself with its trade bluff. 

除了现有一揽子政策，中国应考虑加大投入力度，培育自身芯片优势，不仅意味着向该领域的专门企业提供资金，还要为真正创新的芯片制造商提供有力的激励措施。如果中国能动用所有可行措施将国内芯片制造商发展为真正的全球巨头，届时美国的贸易恐吓只会自食其果。

英文来源：环球时报 福布斯

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